Year-to-Date Picture Is Still Positive
Zooming out to the full year-to-date view changes the tone somewhat. From January 1 through April 12, 17,214 new listings entered the six-county market, a drop of 4.4% compared to the same period last year when the count was just under 18,000. On the pending side, the year-to-date figure is running even with last year, and that number will only improve as agents update back-dated pendings. Year-to-date pendings are outperforming last year by 3.9%. That is a thin margin, but it is positive.
The inventory explosion many anticipated heading into 2026 has not materialized. The forecast of 20,000 active listings by June or July is looking increasingly unlikely. There are currently 15,688 active listings on the market. The reasons supply has stayed contained include sellers holding out for a market recovery that is further away than they expect, the rate lock effect keeping owners with 3.5% and 4% mortgages from listing, and a notable surge in lease listings as homeowners opt to rent their properties rather than sell into current conditions.
Pricing: Lagging Indicators Showing Some Life
On the pricing side, the data is more encouraging, though it is important to understand what you are looking at. Sold price is a lagging indicator. It reflects what happened weeks or months ago, not what is happening now. That said, the current-month average sold price has reached $600,000, up 4.9% month over month and up 3.1% year over year. The median sold price is up 6.3% month over month and up 2.1% year over year. March and April are historically positive months for pricing on a month-over-month basis, so some of this improvement is seasonal. The sold-to-list price ratio is holding at 97.1%, a slight improvement from the prior week.
Year-to-date, the average sold price sits at $561,668, down 1.5% compared to the same period last year. The year-to-date median sold price is $422,000, down 2.1% year over year. Both the top and bottom quartiles of the market remain negative year over year. The bottom quartile is down 2.4%, and the top quartile is down 1.1%. Any time the top quartile underperforms the bottom quartile in a given city, a red indicator flags that condition in the data.
A Hyperlocal Market: Cedar Park and Wimberley at Opposite Ends
The zip-code-level picture tells a story that the metro-wide averages cannot. A new chart introduced this week tracks what percentage of active listings and pending listings in each city and zip code were listed within the past 30 days. That number is a direct proxy for demand velocity: how quickly a market is absorbing fresh supply.
Cedar Park is the standout on the demand side. More than a third of all pending listings there were listed within the past 30 days, the highest figure across the 30 cities tracked in the MLS. That means properties are entering the market and going under contract almost immediately. At the zip code level, one zip code is showing over 50% of its pending listings were listed in the past 30 days, which is a genuinely hot pocket of activity.
On the other end of the spectrum, the zip code tracking 203 active listings has 40% of inventory listed in the past 30 days, with zero pending listings having come on in the past 30 days. Not one. That is a market where supply is expanding rapidly and demand has stalled completely.
Wimberley deserves its own mention. The median sold price there just hit a historical record high, going all the way back to 2000 when the data series begins, up 22.1% year over year.
The Activity Index and Where We Stand Versus Last Year
The Activity Index is calculated by dividing pending listings by the sum of active and pending listings. It measures the share of the total market that is under contract at any given moment. This year's activity index stands at 23.7% compared to 23.6% last year, a gain of just 0.7% year over year. Active listings are up 2.1% year over year, and pending listings are up 3.9% year over year. When active listings grow faster than pendings, the ratio compresses even when raw pending volume improves. Three cities are currently in the green on activity index: Buda, Cedar Park, and Round Rock, all above 30%. Eighteen zip codes are sitting in the contraction zone between 15% and 20%, and twelve to sixteen percent of the 75 tracked zip codes are in what the data classifies as a crisis zone, where buyer paralysis and price correction risk are most acute.
The Market Flow Score, which synthesizes all key indicators into a single zero-to-ten figure, currently sits at 4.80 compared to 4.62 at this point last year. That is a positive comparison. The threshold being watched is four consecutive months where the score outperforms the prior year. February and March both cleared that bar. April of last year posted a very weak 3.84, so April 2026 is expected to outperform it. May is the critical month to watch.
Rates and the Economic Calendar
The 30-year conventional rate currently sits at 6.5%, down from 6.625% at the close of last Friday. That is a modest but real improvement. Investor rates are at 6.875%. The bond market is holding relatively steady today, up 1.5 basis points on the 10-year yield at the time of this session.
This is a significant week for rate direction. Producer Price Index data and National Federation of Independent Business optimism figures are out Tuesday. CPI inflation data follows Wednesday. Import and export pricing data, which offers a cleaner read on inflation because it does not apply hedonic adjustments or substitution methodology, is also on the calendar mid-week. Manufacturing data closes the week on Thursday. If CPI comes in hotter than expected on Wednesday morning, expect immediate pressure on bond yields and mortgage rates. An update will go out by 7:30 a.m. Wednesday with the initial read.
Existing home sales for the full country came in below consensus this morning at 3.98 million, against a forecast of over 4 million, a drop of 3.6%. That figure is a national data point and reflects conditions that do not necessarily mirror Austin, but it is part of the broader economic picture shaping buyer sentiment and lender posture.
Austin Metrics App
The Austin Metrics app is live on the App Store, free to download, and contains daily market data including the figures discussed in this session. Search "AustinMetrics" in the App Store. Version 1.5 is in development and expected within the next few weeks, adding enhanced charts and the ability to share graphs directly from the app. Version 2.0 will add market report request functionality and agent directory integration.
